BERNARD VON SCHULMANN’S PREDICTIONS: Critical political analysis; realistic + idealistic predictions by Gregory Hartnell

JOSEPH STRAUSS’ RARE BASCULE BRIDGE NEAR CHINATOWN, VICTORIA, B. C., CANADA

JOHNSON STREET BRIDGE FROM NEAR THE NORTHERN JUNK CO. BUILDING

Bernard Von Schulmann predicts a resounding NO victory with approximately 11,000 votes to retain the Johnson Street Bridge, with about 4,000 voting YES to destroy it.

He also has predicted the rankings of all eleven Victoria City Council Candidates in the upcoming November 20 Byelection-Referendum 2010.

1. HOBBIS, BARRY

2. FILIPOVIC, STEVE

3. ALTO, MARIANNE

4. WOODS, SUSAN

5. HENRY, ROSE

6. BROWN, PAUL

7. KRUZEL, HUGH

8. SIRK, GEORGE

9. ANDERSON, SAUL

10. MORA, PEDRO

11. TOUMASONIS, RIMAS

I think that it is obvious that Mr. Hobbis has the advantage so far, without being able to cite any polls yet to prove the assertion.

So, although I agree with Bernard Von Schulmann in putting Barry Hobbis in that top spot, I would provide the caveat that it is now Barry Hobbis’ spot to lose to other impressive candidates like Hugh Kruzel and Susan Woods.

To earn our trust and respect, Barry Hobbis must tell us whether he will stand up to unreasonable demands for higher wages from the Victoria Police Union and CUPE.

Will he freeze all new spending pending thorough departmental audits being done, and freeze  all new hiring at City Hall and the Public Works Yard?

Will he advocate to cut and to actually vote for cutting all City taxes fairly and still show us how he will house the homeless, build safe urgent infrastructure, and balance the budget?

Don’t just say you can’t answer the questions or predict tax policies until you see the books, Mr. Hobbis.

Please tell us your answers to questions as matters of principle.

Do you support tax, spending, salary and wage freezes or rollbacks in the City of Victoria at City Hall and the Public Works Yard in the coming year?

What about City of Victoria guarantees of job protection for the present unionized staff?

That is a real issue for many unionist families reliant on the City for stability in their lives.

Can their jobs be protected in a period of radical restraint, one wonders?

As for the rest of Bernard Von Schulmann’s predictions, I believe that he may be correct about Steve Filipovic’s ultimate place on the list of votes cast.

But so far, because I have seen no political signs yet for Marianne Alto, and because I know that the Mayor’s plan is really resented in the community by the vast majority of the people (a CFAX poll showed 70% opposition to the Alto/Fortin position to replace the Johnson Street Bridge), I must question her 3rd place ranking.

Anyway, I think it would be easier for people to see two lists, one realistic and the other idealistic, and that will provide us with the stark contrast we need to discern between, in terms of predictions, which is always a bit of a mug’s game anyway, and there really doesn’t seem to be a damn thing scientific about it, with no disrespect to Bernard’s methodology…

HARTNELL’S REALISTIC PREDICTIONS 

1. HOBBIS, BARRY

2. FILIPOVIC, STEVE

3. WOODS, SUSAN

4. HENRY, ROSE

5. ALTO, MARIANNE

 6. SIRK, GEORGE

7. KRUZEL, HUGH

8. BROWN, PAUL

9. ANDERSON, SAUL

10. TOUMASONIS, RIMAS

11. MORA, PEDRO

 

HARTNELL’S IDEALISTIC PREDICTIONS

1. SUSAN WOODS

2. HUGH KRUZEL

3. PAUL BROWN

4. GEORGE SIRK

  5. BARRY HOBBIS

     6. STEVE FILIPOVIC

7. SAUL ANDERSON

8. ROSE HENRY

9. MARIANNE ALTO

10.  RIMAS TOUMASONIS

11. PEDRO MORA

Basically, I am saying that ideally, I prefer Hugh or Susan to Barry, but that I am still endorsing Barry as a matter of pragmatism.

I think that Marianne Alto will do better than she deserves to do, mainly through the intervention of the NDP and CUPE, but that she will lose decisively in either scenario.

For Rose Henry I predict a similar pattern; that she will do much better than she deserves, mainly due to the classic white liberal shaming technique that she uses so effectively to intimidate susceptible voters into sympathy for her plight, and name familiarity. 

 

SUNSET SEPTEMBER 11, 2009, JOSEPH STRAUSS BRIDGE, VICTORIA, CANADA

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